Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Alex BregmanBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Connelly EarlyPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rays- Christopher MorelBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mangum hit sacrifice fly to center, B. Lowe scored, Morel to third.3–7
- 8Morel singled to center, Caminero scored and Díaz scored, B. Lowe to second.3–6
- 7González singled to right, Story scored, Bregman to third.3–4
- 7Bregman singled to right, Duran scored, Story to second.2–4
- 6B. Lowe homered to right (384 feet).1–4
- 4Rafaela doubled to right, Lowe scored.1–3
- 1Fortes grounded into fielder's choice to third, Caminero scored on throwing error by third baseman Bregman, Morel safe at third on error.0–3
- 1Morel doubled to left, Simpson scored and Díaz scored, Caminero to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML BOS -130 / TB +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −14 | BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TB: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +35 Elo | BOS 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3039–38 | Road vs home | 40–4021st of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 7th of 301531 | Elo rating | 150218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–74 | 78–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–53 | 29–50 |
| Underdog | 42–21 | 49–27 |
| Overs–unders | 76–79 | 71–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 18–20 TB in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 38.