Athletics at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Darell HernaizBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Mason BarnettPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Sogard grounded into fielder's choice to second, Eaton scored.4–5
- 6Story singled to center, Lowe scored, Duran to third.4–4
- 5Yoshida reached on infield single to first, Rafaela scored, Story to second, Duran to third.4–3
- 5Hernaiz singled to left, Soderstrom scored and Wilson scored, Butler to third.4–2
- 5Butler walked, Langeliers scored, Wilson to second, Soderstrom to third.2–2
- 2Refsnyder homered to left (311 feet).1–2
- 2Hernaiz hit sacrifice fly to right, Butler scored, Cortes to third.1–1
- 1Yoshida singled to right, Story scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 60%
- ML ATH +140 / BOS -165
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -149
- ATH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.3 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +5 | ATH: Mason Barnett: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +73 Elo | BOS 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 3038–38 | Road vs home | 45–3111th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Elo rating | 15288th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–67 | 79–72 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–22 | 38–51 |
| Underdog | 66–45 | 41–21 |
| Overs–unders | 79–72 | 74–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–11 BOS in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.
