New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Nate EatonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Eaton homered to left (380 feet).4–1
- 7Rice singled to center, McMahon scored, Rice to second, Judge to third.4–0
- 7McMahon grounded into fielder's choice to second, Caballero scored on throwing error by second baseman Hamilton, McMahon safe at second.3–0
- 3Bellinger singled to left, Judge scored, Rice to third.2–0
- 1Judge homered to center (468 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML NYY -120 / BOS +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 48.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +9 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +12 Elo | BOS 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 4th of 3037–34 | Road vs home | 44–2811th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 4th of 301540 | Elo rating | 15326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–78 | 78–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 56–70 | 37–50 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 41–19 |
| Overs–unders | 73–73 | 73–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 13–23 BOS in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 36.