Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Greene singled to center, Ibáñez scored, Carpenter to third.12–2
- 7Pérez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Carpenter scored, Torkelson out at second.11–2
- 7Carpenter tripled to left, Keith scored and Torres scored.10–2
- 7Sweeney scored on Leiter Jr. wild pitch, Torres to second on wild pitch by Leiter Jr., Keith to third on wild pitch by Leiter Jr..8–2
- 7Sweeney scored on Leiter Jr. wild pitch, Torres to second on wild pitch by Leiter Jr., Keith to third on wild pitch by Leiter Jr..8–2
- 7Torres walked, Dingler scored, Keith to second, Sweeney to third.7–2
- 7Keith hit by pitch, Meadows scored, Sweeney to second, Dingler to third.6–2
- 7Sweeney singled to left, Pérez scored, Dingler to second, Meadows to third.5–2
- 7Dingler walked, Torkelson scored, Meadows to second, Pérez to third.4–2
- 7Meadows singled to right, Greene scored, Pérez to second, Torkelson to third.3–2
- 5Meadows homered to right center (391 feet), Torkelson scored.2–2
- 4Bellinger homered to right (389 feet).0–2
- 1Judge homered to right center (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML DET +135 / NYY -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- DET +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −14 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +38 Elo | NYY 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3036–33 | Road vs home | 43–2912th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15463rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–76 | 67–76 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 48–56 | 55–68 |
| Underdog | 20–20 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 78–66 | 70–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–10 NYY in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.