New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Carlos NarvaezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caballero homered to left (423 feet).4–6
- 5Judge homered to right center (400 feet).3–6
- 4Rosario homered to left center (387 feet), Stanton scored.2–6
- 1Narváez homered to center (403 feet).0–6
- 1Refsnyder grounded out to second, González scored.0–5
- 1Yoshida hit sacrifice fly to center, Lowe scored, González to third.0–4
- 1González doubled to right, Story scored, Lowe to third.0–3
- 1Lowe singled to right, Bregman scored, Story to second.0–2
- 1Bregman singled to center, Duran scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML NYY +135 / BOS -160
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -145
- NYY +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.3 – 4.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +13 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +39 Elo | BOS 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3039–34 | Road vs home | 44–3011th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–78 | 78–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 58–70 | 37–50 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 41–21 |
| Overs–unders | 73–75 | 73–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 15–23 BOS in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 38.