New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Alex BregmanBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bellinger doubled to left, Judge scored.5–3
- 8Duran homered to right center (386 feet).4–3
- 6Wong singled to center, Eaton scored, Sogard to second.4–2
- 5Bregman homered to right (316 feet).4–1
- 5Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (430 feet).4–0
- 3Chisholm Jr. singled to left, Judge scored, Bellinger to second.3–0
- 1Chisholm Jr. reached on infield single to pitcher, Rice scored, Judge to second.2–0
- 1Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to center, Grisham scored, Rice to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -155 / BOS +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 49.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 3.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +3 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +3 Elo | BOS 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3038–34 | Road vs home | 44–2911th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 15307th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–78 | 78–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 57–70 | 37–50 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 41–20 |
| Overs–unders | 73–74 | 73–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 14–23 BOS in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 37.