Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Rays- Everson PereiraBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pereira homered to left (412 feet), Gray scored, Palacios scored and B. Seymour scored.11–7
- 8Lowe hit by pitch, Yoshida scored, Eaton to second, González to third.11–3
- 8Duran scored and Story scored on error, González safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Gray, Yoshida to third.10–3
- 8Yoshida walked, Rafaela scored, Story to second, Duran to third.8–3
- 8Story grounded into fielder's choice to second, Lowe scored, Duran safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Palacios, Rafaela to third.7–3
- 8Rafaela singled to right, Eaton scored, Lowe to second.6–3
- 8Eaton singled to center, González scored.5–3
- 7Duran homered to right (385 feet), Rafaela scored.4–3
- 3Díaz homered to right (365 feet).2–3
- 3Bregman homered to left (362 feet).2–2
- 2Williams homered to right (331 feet).1–2
- 2Lowe singled to center, Eaton scored.1–1
- 1Fortes singled to center, Díaz scored, Morel to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML BOS -145 / TB +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -130
- TB +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.5 – 3.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +10 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +2 Elo | BOS 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3037–38 | Road vs home | 40–3820th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 150715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–74 | 78–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–53 | 29–49 |
| Underdog | 41–21 | 49–26 |
| Overs–unders | 74–79 | 69–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 16–20 TB in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 36.