Athletics at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Story homered to center (431 feet).5–3
- 7Butler scored on error, Kurtz safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Story.5–2
- 3Wilson reached on infield single to shortstop, Kurtz scored on throwing error by shortstop Story, Soderstrom safe at third on error.4–2
- 2Hamilton homered to right center (393 feet).3–2
- 1Yoshida hit sacrifice fly to right, Story scored, Bregman to second.3–1
- 1Soderstrom singled to left, Kurtz scored.3–0
- 1Rooker homered to left (397 feet), Butler scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML ATH +125 / BOS -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -135
- ATH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −1 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +59 Elo | BOS 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 9th of 3038–39 | Road vs home | 46–3110th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301482 | Elo rating | 15297th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–67 | 79–73 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–22 | 38–52 |
| Underdog | 67–45 | 41–21 |
| Overs–unders | 79–73 | 74–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–12 BOS in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.
