Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting1-3
- Chris BassittPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rays- Carson WilliamsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Williams homered to left (402 feet).0–4
- 2B. Lowe singled to right, B. Seymour scored, Simpson to third.0–3
- 2Simpson singled to center, Feduccia scored and Williams scored, B. Seymour to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML TOR -125 / TB +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −6 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +15 Elo | TOR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3039–38 | Road vs home | 39–3821st of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 6th of 301535 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–68 | 77–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 38–45 | 29–49 |
| Underdog | 45–23 | 48–26 |
| Overs–unders | 87–65 | 69–83 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 13–22 TB in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 35.