Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Alex BregmanBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rays- Jake MangumBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9González hit sacrifice fly to right, Bregman scored, Hamilton to third.6–3
- 9Yoshida singled to center, Story scored, Bregman to third.5–3
- 9Story singled to right, Rafaela scored.4–3
- 7Díaz singled to right, Fortes scored.3–3
- 7Fortes doubled to left, J. Lowe scored.3–2
- 6Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, González scored.3–1
- 5Bregman singled to center, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.2–1
- 4Mangum doubled to left, B. Lowe scored.1–1
- 3Story walked, Duran scored on Houser wild pitch.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML BOS -105 / TB -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- TB: Elo 50.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +7 | BOS: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +7 Elo | TB 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 8th of 3038–38 | Road vs home | 40–3921st of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 7th of 301529 | Elo rating | 150418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–74 | 78–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–53 | 29–49 |
| Underdog | 41–21 | 49–27 |
| Overs–unders | 75–79 | 70–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 17–20 TB in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 37.