New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting4-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Volpe singled to left, Caballero scored, Goldschmidt to second.7–1
- 10Chisholm Jr. homered to right (385 feet).6–1
- 10Rice homered to right center (413 feet), Grisham scored, Judge scored and Bellinger scored.5–1
- 6Rice singled to left, Grisham scored, Judge to second.1–1
- 5Basallo homered to right (420 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -135 / BAL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- BAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +21 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +13 Elo | NYY 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3043–37 | Road vs home | 37–4023rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–82 | 79–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 61–72 | 24–39 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 55–37 |
| Overs–unders | 76–79 | 66–89 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 16–19 BAL in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 35.