New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting1-4
- Cade PovichPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stanton doubled to left, Bellinger scored and Goldschmidt scored.7–0
- 7Judge hit sacrifice fly to left, Wells scored.5–0
- 7Goldschmidt singled to right, Caballero scored, Wells to third.4–0
- 5Wells singled to right, Volpe scored, Caballero to second.3–0
- 1Rosario doubled to left, Bellinger scored and Goldschmidt scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 65%
- ML NYY -210 / BAL +175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.7%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -186
- BAL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 3.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −18 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +54 Elo | NYY 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3041–36 | Road vs home | 36–3823rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 5th of 301541 | Elo rating | 149421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–81 | 78–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 59–72 | 23–39 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 55–35 |
| Overs–unders | 76–76 | 66–86 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 14–18 BAL in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 32.