New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-4
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Keaschall singled to center, Martin scored.0–7
- 7Martin doubled to left, Buxton scored, Lee scored and Julien scored.0–6
- 7Lee doubled to right, Larnach scored.0–3
- 5Lee homered to left (355 feet).0–2
- 3Martin grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Pereda scored, Julien out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 63%
- ML NYY -190 / MIN +160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -170
- MIN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +66 Elo | NYY 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3039–35 | Road vs home | 36–3823rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 146026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–79 | 71–78 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 58–70 | 32–48 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 39–29 |
| Overs–unders | 74–75 | 74–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–5 MIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.