Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- James McCannBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nabil CrismattPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thomas hit sacrifice fly to left, Carroll scored.6–4
- 7Gasper homered to right (356 feet).5–4
- 7Tawa singled to right, Thomas scored.5–3
- 6Wallner homered to right center (421 feet).4–3
- 4McCann homered to left center (407 feet), Alexander scored and Lawlar scored.4–2
- 2Buxton safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Lawlar. Gasper scored, Julien to third, Buxton to second on error.1–2
- 2Julien singled to left, Lewis scored, Gasper to third.1–1
- 2McCann singled to left, Thomas scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML ARI +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.7 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +2 | ARI: Nabil Crismatt: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +25 Elo | ARI 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 14th of 3036–41 | Road vs home | 36–3723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 12th of 301515 | Elo rating | 146226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–71 | 71–77 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–47 | 32–47 |
| Underdog | 46–24 | 39–29 |
| Overs–unders | 76–73 | 73–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–6 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.