Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Blaze AlexanderBatting2-4
- Zac GallenPitching6.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vargas singled to left, Perdomo scored, Vargas to second, Alexander to third.3–5
- 5Bailey homered to right (359 feet).2–5
- 5Barrosa hit sacrifice fly to right, Lawlar scored.2–4
- 5Lawlar doubled to center, Tawa scored.1–4
- 4Schmitt hit sacrifice fly to right, Chapman scored.0–4
- 1Adames homered to left center (394 feet), Ramos scored and Devers scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML ARI +125 / SF -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- SF: Elo 50.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -135
- ARI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +4 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +3 Elo | SF 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 16th of 3034–39 | Road vs home | 36–3420th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–70 | 63–81 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 32–47 | 26–57 |
| Underdog | 43–23 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 74–71 | 70–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 18–16 SF in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 34.