Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nabil CrismattPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bailey homered to right (351 feet).5–11
- 8Moreno homered to left center (388 feet).5–10
- 7Chapman homered to left center (401 feet).4–10
- 6Ramos homered to left center (435 feet), Koss scored.4–9
- 6Bailey hit sacrifice fly to left, Lee scored.4–7
- 6Koss doubled to right, Chapman scored and Matos scored, Lee to third.4–6
- 3Smith homered to right (414 feet), Devers scored.4–4
- 3Alexander singled to right, Marte scored, Alexander to second, Moreno to third.4–2
- 2Lee homered to right (364 feet), Gilbert scored.3–2
- 2McCarthy tripled to right, Moreno scored, Thomas scored and Vargas scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 62%
- ML ARI +150 / SF -180
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- SF: Elo 52.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -161
- ARI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.2 – 4.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +18 | ARI: Nabil Crismatt: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +15 Elo | SF 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 14th of 3034–38 | Road vs home | 35–3421st of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 12th of 301517 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–69 | 62–81 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–47 | 25–57 |
| Underdog | 43–22 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 73–71 | 69–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 18–15 SF in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 33.