Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Spencer BivensPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee grounded out to second, Chapman scored, Schmitt to third.5–3
- 8Devers doubled to center, Ramos scored and Bailey scored.5–2
- 6McCarthy doubled to center, Tawa scored.5–0
- 2Marte hit sacrifice fly to right, Tawa scored.4–0
- 2Perdomo singled to right, Thomas scored, Tawa to third.3–0
- 2Tawa singled to left, Alexander scored, Thomas to second.2–0
- 1Perdomo homered to right (380 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML ARI +110 / SF -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- SF: Elo 50.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −7 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Carson Seymour: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +6 Elo | SF 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 17th of 3034–40 | Road vs home | 37–3420th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 13th of 301512 | Elo rating | 150816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–71 | 64–81 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 32–47 | 27–57 |
| Underdog | 43–24 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 75–71 | 71–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 18–17 SF in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 35.