Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting4-4, 3 HR, 5 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Keaschall hit sacrifice fly to center, Buxton scored.8–9
- 9Larnach walked, Fitzgerald scored, Martin to second, Buxton to third.8–8
- 9Clemens homered to center (419 feet).8–7
- 9Moreno homered to left center (386 feet), Kaiser scored and Carroll scored.8–6
- 9Carroll singled to right, Tawa scored, Kaiser to second.5–6
- 7Perdomo homered to right center (403 feet), Tawa scored.4–6
- 6Clemens doubled to left, Lee scored.2–6
- 5Keaschall grounded out to shortstop, Martin scored.2–5
- 5Moreno reached on infield single to second, Vargas scored on throwing error by second baseman Keaschall, Carroll safe at third on error.2–4
- 4Clemens homered to right (374 feet), Lewis scored.1–4
- 4Lee sacrificed into double play, left to third to second, Keaschall scored, Wallner thrown out at second.1–2
- 3Clemens homered to right center (422 feet).1–1
- 1Carroll singled to left, Perdomo scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML ARI +120 / MIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -130
- ARI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +23 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 1.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +9 Elo | ARI 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 14th of 3035–40 | Road vs home | 35–3623rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 146326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–71 | 71–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–47 | 32–45 |
| Underdog | 44–24 | 39–29 |
| Overs–unders | 75–72 | 72–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–5 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.