Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Alexander doubled to right, Carroll scored and Moreno scored, Del Castillo to third.5–2
- 10Moreno reached on infield single to shortstop, Barrosa scored, Carroll to third.3–2
- 8Clemens singled to right, Keaschall scored and Martin scored, Lewis to third.2–2
- 4Thomas homered to right (440 feet), Del Castillo scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML ARI +115 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +1 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +25 Elo | ARI 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.323rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 16th of 3035–41 | Road vs home | 36–3622nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 12th of 301513 | Elo rating | 146426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–71 | 71–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–47 | 32–46 |
| Underdog | 45–24 | 39–29 |
| Overs–unders | 76–72 | 73–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–6 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.