New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Twins- Ryan FitzgeraldBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching3.0 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Larnach homered to right (426 feet).10–9
- 6Larnach hit sacrifice fly to right, Buxton scored.10–8
- 6Fitzgerald homered to right center (393 feet), Gasper scored.10–7
- 6Gasper singled to center, Wallner scored.10–5
- 5Buxton scored on Schlittler wild pitch, Larnach to third.10–4
- 5Buxton scored on Schlittler wild pitch, Larnach to third.10–4
- 5Outman homered to center (443 feet), Fitzgerald scored.10–3
- 4Volpe singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.10–1
- 3Rice doubled to right, Wells scored.9–1
- 3Judge hit sacrifice fly to center, Volpe scored.8–1
- 3Grisham hit sacrifice fly to left, McMahon scored, Wells to second, Volpe to third.7–1
- 2Stanton singled to right, Judge scored, Rice to second.6–1
- 2Grisham homered to right (391 feet), Wells scored.5–1
- 2Wells doubled to center, Volpe scored.3–1
- 1Lewis singled to left, Larnach scored, Clemens to third.2–1
- 1Stanton hit sacrifice fly to center, Judge scored.2–0
- 1Bellinger singled to center, Grisham scored, Judge to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML NYY -175 / MIN +145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- MIN +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −15 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +76 Elo | NYY 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3039–36 | Road vs home | 37–3822nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 5th of 301538 | Elo rating | 146426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–80 | 72–78 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 58–71 | 32–48 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 40–29 |
| Overs–unders | 74–76 | 74–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–6 MIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.