New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis GilPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bellinger homered to right (374 feet), Judge scored.10–5
- 8McMahon singled to center, Domínguez scored.8–5
- 5Lee singled to center, Keaschall scored and Larnach scored, Outman to second.7–5
- 5Keaschall singled to center, Buxton scored, Larnach to second.7–3
- 4Rice scored on a balk, Judge to second on a balk.7–2
- 4Rice scored on a balk, Judge to second on a balk.7–2
- 4Grisham homered to right (393 feet), Domínguez scored and Caballero scored.6–2
- 4Domínguez doubled to center, Goldschmidt scored.3–2
- 3Grisham homered to right center (432 feet).2–2
- 2Lee scored on a passed ball by Rice, Julien to second on passed ball by Rice.1–2
- 2Lee scored on a passed ball by Rice, Julien to second on passed ball by Rice.1–2
- 2Lewis singled to center, Wallner scored, Lee to second.1–1
- 1Bellinger singled to left, Judge scored, Bellinger to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -155 / MIN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 61.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- MIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.1 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −14 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +83 Elo | NYY 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3040–36 | Road vs home | 37–3923rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 5th of 301539 | Elo rating | 146326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–81 | 73–78 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 58–72 | 32–48 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 41–29 |
| Overs–unders | 75–76 | 75–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 12–6 MIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.