New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mayo doubled to left, O'Neill scored.6–1
- 6Grisham singled to right, Volpe scored.6–0
- 5Chisholm Jr. singled to left, Bellinger scored.5–0
- 3Judge homered to left (408 feet).4–0
- 1Stanton homered to right (358 feet), Judge scored and Bellinger scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 63%
- ML NYY -190 / BAL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -170
- BAL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 3.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +34 Elo | NYY 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3042–37 | Road vs home | 37–3923rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 149321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–82 | 79–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 60–72 | 24–39 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 55–36 |
| Overs–unders | 76–78 | 66–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 15–19 BAL in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 34.