New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Henderson doubled to left, Westburg scored.2–4
- 7Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (388 feet), Slater scored.2–3
- 6Basallo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Henderson scored, J. Jackson out at second, Beavers to third.0–3
- 6Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to right, Westburg scored.0–2
- 2Mountcastle homered to left center (422 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -115 / BAL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 49.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +16 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 1.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +5 Elo | BAL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3042–36 | Road vs home | 36–3924th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 149221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–81 | 78–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 60–72 | 23–39 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 55–36 |
| Overs–unders | 76–77 | 66–87 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 15–18 BAL in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 33.