Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-5
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Narváez doubled to center, Abreu scored and Lowe scored.4–1
- 6Lowe singled to right, González scored, Rafaela to third.2–1
- 4Giménez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lukes scored, Schneider out at second.1–1
- 2Lowe singled to center, Yoshida scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML BOS +135 / TOR -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -145
- BOS +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +14 | BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +29 Elo | TOR 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 9th of 3039–39 | Road vs home | 50–252nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 7th of 301529 | Elo rating | 15288th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–75 | 85–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 39–54 | 39–48 |
| Underdog | 42–21 | 45–23 |
| Overs–unders | 77–79 | 89–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 18–18 TOR in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 36.