Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-5, 2 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Giménez tripled to center, Clement scored.8–5
- 8Clement singled to left, Straw scored.7–5
- 6Grichuk singled to right, Caglianone scored.6–5
- 5Perez singled to center, Pasquantino scored, Garcia to second.6–4
- 5Garcia singled to right, Yastrzemski scored, Pasquantino to second.6–3
- 5Barger doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.6–2
- 5Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Varsho scored and Heineman scored.5–2
- 4Jensen singled to right, Garcia scored and Pasquantino scored, Frazier to third.3–2
- 2Springer doubled to center, Giménez scored.3–0
- 2Heineman hit sacrifice bunt to first, Clement scored, Giménez to second.2–0
- 2Giménez singled to right, Lukes scored, Clement to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML TOR -125 / KC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −7 | TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +24 Elo | TOR 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3039–41 | Road vs home | 43–3717th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 150019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–71 | 75–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 38–48 | 25–43 |
| Underdog | 45–23 | 50–37 |
| Overs–unders | 88–67 | 68–87 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 9–10 KC in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.