Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canzone grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Suárez scored, Naylor out at second.5–7
- 8Witt Jr. doubled to left, Jensen scored on error, Witt Jr. safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Arozarena.4–7
- 8Jensen singled to center, Caglianone scored.4–6
- 8Frazier homered to left (338 feet), Massey scored.4–5
- 8Crawford homered to right (386 feet).4–3
- 7Garver hit sacrifice fly to center, Suárez scored.3–3
- 2Suárez homered to center (416 feet), Polanco scored.2–3
- 1Perez homered to center (435 feet), Pasquantino scored and Garcia scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML SEA +105 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- KC: Elo 46.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −9 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +24 Elo | SEA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3035–40 | Road vs home | 40–3619th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301530 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–87 | 72–79 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–65 | 24–43 |
| Underdog | 32–22 | 48–36 |
| Overs–unders | 84–67 | 66–85 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 12–6 KC in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.