Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jensen singled to left, India scored.6–8
- 7Marsh homered to right center (412 feet).5–8
- 7Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to right, Tolbert scored.5–7
- 6Schwarber singled to right, Walton scored, Bader to third.4–7
- 5Kemp doubled to left, Realmuto scored.4–6
- 5Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to center, Harper scored, Realmuto to third.4–5
- 5Schwarber homered to right (361 feet).4–4
- 3Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to right, Bader scored.4–3
- 3Perez homered to left center (401 feet).4–2
- 1Marsh doubled to center, Schwarber scored and Bader scored.3–2
- 1Perez homered to left center (398 feet), Garcia scored.3–0
- 1Garcia singled to left, Pasquantino scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML KC +125 / PHI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -135
- KC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −10 | KC: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +74 Elo | PHI 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 15th of 3034–39 | Road vs home | 50–231st of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15562nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–77 | 77–71 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 24–43 | 57–61 |
| Underdog | 47–34 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 63–85 | 68–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–5 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.