Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stott homered to right center (391 feet), Wilson scored.2–8
- 7Witt Jr. grounded out to first, Caglianone scored, Tolbert to second.2–6
- 4Schwarber doubled to right, Bader scored.1–6
- 4Bader doubled to right, Marchán scored.1–5
- 3Kemp singled to left, Marsh scored.1–4
- 3Harper homered to left center (400 feet), Schwarber scored.1–3
- 2Marchán hit sacrifice fly to right, Kemp scored, Kepler to third.1–1
- 1Garcia singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML KC +120 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- KC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +78 Elo | PHI 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–38 | Road vs home | 49–231st of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15532nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–76 | 76–71 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 24–43 | 56–61 |
| Underdog | 47–33 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 62–85 | 67–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–4 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.