Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tolbert hit sacrifice fly to right, Pasquantino scored.10–3
- 9Witt Jr. homered to right center (381 feet).9–3
- 8Stott homered to center (405 feet).8–3
- 7Perez singled to right, Jensen scored and Pasquantino scored, Garcia to third.8–2
- 6Perez homered to left (371 feet), Pasquantino scored and Garcia scored.6–2
- 6Pasquantino doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.3–2
- 5Caglianone homered to right center (404 feet), Massey scored.2–2
- 1Realmuto homered to left (380 feet).0–2
- 1Schwarber homered to left center (414 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML KC +130 / PHI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −7 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +67 Elo | PHI 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 16th of 3034–40 | Road vs home | 51–231st of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 19th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15572nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–78 | 78–71 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 24–43 | 58–61 |
| Underdog | 47–35 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 64–85 | 69–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–6 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.