Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting5-5, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Royals- Carter JensenBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canzone homered to right (388 feet), Rivas scored.12–5
- 8Yastrzemski hit sacrifice fly to left, Jensen scored.10–5
- 8Isbel reached on infield single to shortstop, India scored, Jensen to third.10–4
- 6Jensen homered to right (394 feet), India scored.10–3
- 5Canzone homered to center (447 feet).10–1
- 4Jensen homered to left (382 feet).9–1
- 4Raleigh homered to center (425 feet), Arozarena scored.9–0
- 3Robles tripled to center, Canzone scored.7–0
- 3Suárez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Naylor scored, Polanco out at second.6–0
- 3Naylor doubled to right, Rodríguez scored.5–0
- 3Raleigh homered to right (422 feet).4–0
- 2Canzone homered to right (419 feet).3–0
- 1Rodríguez doubled to left, Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SEA -145 / KC +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- KC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +9 Elo | SEA 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 19th of 3034–40 | Road vs home | 40–3519th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 149720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–87 | 72–78 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–65 | 24–43 |
| Underdog | 32–22 | 48–35 |
| Overs–unders | 83–67 | 65–85 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 11–6 KC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.