Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Varsho homered to center (437 feet).1–2
- 4Pasquantino homered to right center (397 feet).0–2
- 4Witt Jr. homered to center (422 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML TOR -135 / KC +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +8 | TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +8 Elo | TOR 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 11th of 3039–40 | Road vs home | 42–3718th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 149920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–70 | 74–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–47 | 25–43 |
| Underdog | 45–23 | 49–37 |
| Overs–unders | 88–66 | 68–86 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 9–9 KC in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.