Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tommy NancePitching2.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rave singled to left, Caglianone scored, Massey to second.1–20
- 8Massey singled to center, Frazier scored, Caglianone to third.1–19
- 8Caglianone singled to right, Maile scored, Frazier to third.1–18
- 8Frazier singled to center, Tolbert scored, Maile to third.1–17
- 8Maile doubled to left, India scored and Grichuk scored, Tolbert to third.1–16
- 7Caglianone homered to right center (406 feet), Tolbert scored and Maile scored.1–14
- 7Maile singled to center, India scored, Tolbert to second.1–11
- 3Pasquantino singled to center, Jensen scored.1–10
- 3Jensen doubled to center, Caglianone scored and Massey scored.1–9
- 1Massey homered to right (393 feet), Frazier scored.1–7
- 1Perez homered to right center (403 feet), Pasquantino scored and Garcia scored.1–5
- 1Pasquantino doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored.1–2
- 1Witt Jr. singled to left, Jensen scored.1–1
- 1Springer homered to left center (418 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML TOR -145 / KC +120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -130
- KC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +28 Elo | TOR 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3039–39 | Road vs home | 41–3719th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301533 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–69 | 73–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 38–46 | 25–43 |
| Underdog | 45–23 | 48–37 |
| Overs–unders | 87–66 | 67–86 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 9–8 KC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.