Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jake MangumBatting3-5
- Jesse ScholtensPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Beavers homered to right (417 feet).5–6
- 8Mayo homered to left (413 feet), J. Jackson scored.5–5
- 8Cowser struck out swinging, Mountcastle scored on Scholtens wild pitch, J. Jackson to second on wild pitch by Scholtens.5–3
- 6B. Seymour singled to right, Gray scored.5–2
- 6Gray doubled to right, Palacios scored, Williams thrown out at home.4–2
- 5Mountcastle singled to right, Beavers scored, Henderson to second.3–2
- 3Mountcastle homered to right (362 feet).3–1
- 3Palacios hit sacrifice fly to center, Caminero scored.3–0
- 3Morel doubled to left, B. Seymour scored and Díaz scored, Caminero to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -115 / BAL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- TB: Elo 52.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −20 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +18 Elo | TB 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3036–41 | Road vs home | 38–4224th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–78 | 80–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–50 | 25–40 |
| Underdog | 51–28 | 55–38 |
| Overs–unders | 73–85 | 67–91 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 15–23 BAL in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 38.