Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Story singled to center, Duran scored.1–6
- 6Springer homered to right (369 feet), Giménez scored.0–6
- 6Varsho homered to right center (371 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored, Barger scored and Santander scored.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML BOS +120 / TOR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -130
- BOS +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −4 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Louis Varland: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +8 Elo | TOR 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 3041–39 | Road vs home | 50–273rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 7th of 301534 | Elo rating | 15239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–75 | 85–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 40–54 | 39–49 |
| Underdog | 43–21 | 45–24 |
| Overs–unders | 78–80 | 90–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 20–18 TOR in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 38.