Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kiner-Falefa homered to right (354 feet).7–1
- 8Narváez homered to center (408 feet), González and Rafaela scored.7–0
- 5Yoshida homered to right (399 feet).4–0
- 1González singled to left, Bregman and Yoshida scored.3–0
- 1Yoshida doubled to right, Story scored, Bregman to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML BOS -130 / TOR +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.9 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −19 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +10 Elo | BOS 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3040–39 | Road vs home | 50–262nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 7th of 301531 | Elo rating | 15269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–75 | 85–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 39–54 | 39–49 |
| Underdog | 43–21 | 45–23 |
| Overs–unders | 77–80 | 89–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 19–18 TOR in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 37.