Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Springer homered to center (382 feet), Straw scored.4–13
- 7Straw tripled to right, Clement scored.4–11
- 7Barger homered to right center (419 feet), Varsho scored.4–10
- 5Kirk homered to center (419 feet), Santander scored.4–8
- 4Giménez hit sacrifice fly to right, Clement scored.4–6
- 3Mangum singled to center, Aranda scored, J. Lowe to second.4–5
- 3Aranda singled to right, B. Seymour scored and Palacios scored, Caminero to third.3–5
- 1Kirk homered to left center (387 feet), Schneider scored, Guerrero Jr. scored and Varsho scored.1–5
- 1Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Springer scored, Schneider to second.1–1
- 1Aranda singled to center, Palacios scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML TB +170 / TOR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -181
- TB +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +13 | TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +50 Elo | TOR 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 19th of 3036–44 | Road vs home | 53–272nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 20th of 301500 | Elo rating | 15299th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–80 | 88–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–50 | 42–49 |
| Underdog | 52–30 | 45–24 |
| Overs–unders | 74–87 | 90–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 23–15 TOR in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 38.