Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Burleson homered to right (432 feet), Scott II scored.7–9
- 6Herrera hit sacrifice fly to right, Pagés scored, Scott II to third.7–7
- 6Wetherholt hit sacrifice fly to right, Church scored, Pagés to third.7–6
- 6Church singled to left, Gorman scored and Walker scored.7–5
- 6Gorman singled to center, Burleson scored and Winn scored.7–3
- 6Fortes reached on infield single to shortstop, Williamson scored, DeLuca to second.7–1
- 6DeLuca singled to center, Caminero scored and Simpson scored, Williamson to third.6–1
- 6Williamson reached on infield single to pitcher, Díaz scored, Caminero to second, Simpson to third.4–1
- 6Aranda hit sacrifice fly to center, Williams scored.3–1
- 6Simpson singled to left, Fortes scored, Díaz to second, Williams to third.2–1
- 5Aranda homered to right center (405 feet).1–1
- 3Wetherholt homered to center (425 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML TB -136 / STL +113
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- TB: Elo 49.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +3 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +6 Elo | STL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 20th of 3036–45 | Road vs home | 44–3716th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Elo rating | 148025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  TB |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–81 | 76–86 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–50 | 24–48 |
| Underdog | 52–31 | 52–38 |
| Overs–unders | 75–87 | 85–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–5 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.