St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burleson singled to right, Fermín scored.9–8
- 9Donovan doubled to right, Scott II scored.8–8
- 7Arenado homered to left (384 feet).7–8
- 7Herrera homered to center (400 feet), Walker scored and Scott II scored.6–8
- 6Ramos homered to left center (430 feet).3–8
- 5Koss singled to center, Bailey scored.3–7
- 5Bailey doubled to left, Chapman scored.3–6
- 3Lee singled to center, Adames scored, Eldridge to third.3–5
- 3Chapman hit sacrifice fly to center, Ramos scored, Adames to third.3–4
- 3Adames singled to right, Gilbert scored, Ramos to third.3–3
- 3Ramos grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bailey scored on throwing error by third baseman Arenado and Koss scored on error, Gilbert safe at third on error.3–2
- 1Saggese singled to left, Nootbaar scored.3–0
- 1Arenado grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Herrera scored, Burleson out at second.2–0
- 1Burleson singled to center, Donovan scored, Herrera to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 64%
- ML STL +165 / SF -205
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- SF: Elo 57.4%, market 64.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -178
- STL +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 4.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +5 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +52 Elo | SF 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 64.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3033–43 | Road vs home | 38–3821st of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301480 | Elo rating | 149920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–82 | 69–88 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–47 | 27–60 |
| Underdog | 51–35 | 42–28 |
| Overs–unders | 82–75 | 77–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–8 SF in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.