St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Devers homered to left center (384 feet).6–5
- 5Walker grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Arenado scored, Pagés out at second.6–4
- 5Pagés grounded into fielder's choice to second, Burleson scored on fielding error by second baseman Schmitt, Arenado safe at third on error.5–4
- 5Herrera homered to center (412 feet), Nootbaar scored.4–4
- 4Ramos singled to right, Bailey scored and Schmitt scored, Ramos out stretching at second, Gilbert to third.2–4
- 4Bailey singled to left, Chapman scored, Schmitt to third.2–2
- 4Fermín doubled to center, Walker scored.2–1
- 3Burleson singled to right, Fermín scored, Herrera to third.1–1
- 1Ramos homered to left center (382 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 58%
- ML STL +130 / SF -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- SF: Elo 56.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +10 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +42 Elo | SF 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3032–43 | Road vs home | 38–3720th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301479 | Elo rating | 150119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–82 | 69–87 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–47 | 27–59 |
| Underdog | 50–35 | 42–28 |
| Overs–unders | 81–75 | 76–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–8 SF in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.