San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Christian KossBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11Carroll hit sacrifice fly to left, Perdomo scored.5–1
- 11Devers singled to left, Koss scored.5–0
- 11McCray hit sacrifice fly to left, Bailey scored.4–0
- 11Koss doubled to center, Lee scored and Encarnación scored, Bailey to third.3–0
- 11Encarnación singled to center, Chapman scored, Lee to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML SF -105 / ARI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −7 | SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +27 Elo | ARI 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3037–39 | Road vs home | 40–3416th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Elo rating | 152011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–85 | 80–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–59 | 33–48 |
| Underdog | 39–26 | 47–24 |
| Overs–unders | 74–77 | 78–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 17–21 ARI in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 38.