Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Michael ConfortoBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edman singled to center, Ohtani scored, T. Hernández to second.10–2
- 8Flores singled to left, Devers scored, Adames to third.9–2
- 8Conforto singled to right, Freeman scored, Edman to second.9–1
- 6Rojas singled to center, Betts scored and T. Hernández scored, Conforto to second.8–1
- 5Edman scored, Conforto to second on a disengagement violation.6–1
- 5Edman scored on a disengagement violation, Conforto to second on a disengagement violation.6–1
- 5Conforto singled to right, Freeman scored and T. Hernández scored, Edman to third.5–1
- 5Freeman doubled to right, Betts scored, T. Hernández to third.3–1
- 3Edman grounded out to third, Betts scored, T. Hernández to second.2–1
- 2Schmitt hit sacrifice fly to left, Lee scored.1–1
- 2E. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Edman scored, Call to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -135 / SF +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- SF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 3.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +20 Elo | LAD 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3033–39 | Road vs home | 38–3620th of 30 |
| 30th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301547 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–86 | 65–83 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 48–77 | 27–59 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 38–24 |
| Overs–unders | 74–74 | 72–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 21–13 SF in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 34.