Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Freeman doubled to right, Ohtani scored.13–7
- 6Rojas doubled to center, Conforto scored and Pages scored.12–7
- 6T. Hernández scored on Gage wild pitch, Pages to second on wild pitch by Gage, Conforto to third on wild pitch by Gage.10–7
- 6T. Hernández scored on Gage wild pitch, Pages to second on wild pitch by Gage, Conforto to third on wild pitch by Gage.10–7
- 5Bailey doubled to right, Matos scored and Encarnación scored.9–7
- 5Encarnación doubled to left, Chapman scored.9–5
- 5Betts singled to center, Rortvedt scored, Ohtani to second.9–4
- 5Rortvedt doubled to center, Rojas scored and T. Hernández scored.8–4
- 5Conforto hit sacrifice fly to right, Muncy scored.6–4
- 5T. Hernández doubled to right, Betts scored and Freeman scored, Muncy to third.5–4
- 3T. Hernández doubled to left, Betts scored.3–4
- 3Ohtani homered to center (454 feet).2–4
- 1Matos singled to right, Chapman scored, Encarnación to second.1–4
- 1Encarnación grounded into fielder's choice to third, Adames scored, Schmitt out at second, Chapman to third.1–3
- 1Chapman singled to left, Devers scored, Adames to third.1–2
- 1Adames singled to center, Ramos scored, Adames to second, Devers to second, Devers safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Pages.1–1
- 1Freeman singled to left, Ohtani scored, Freeman out stretching at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML LAD +100 / SF -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- SF: Elo 49.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- LAD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +14 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +1 Elo | LAD 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3032–39 | Road vs home | 38–3520th of 30 |
| 30th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301544 | Elo rating | 150915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–86 | 65–82 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 48–77 | 27–58 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 38–24 |
| Overs–unders | 73–74 | 71–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 20–13 SF in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 33.