Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Michael ConfortoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bailey homered to left center (388 feet), Koss scored, Lee scored and Schmitt scored.1–5
- 7Conforto homered to center (400 feet).1–1
- 1Adames doubled to center, Devers scored on fielding error by center fielder Pages.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -150 / SF +125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- SF +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.1 – 3.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +22 Elo | LAD 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3032–38 | Road vs home | 37–3520th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301547 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–85 | 64–82 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 48–76 | 27–58 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 73–73 | 71–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 20–12 SF in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 32.