San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kai-Wei TengPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- James McCannBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perdomo doubled to center, McCarthy scored.1–8
- 6Perdomo tripled to center, McCarthy scored.1–7
- 6McCann homered to left center (419 feet), Lawlar scored.1–6
- 6Lawlar doubled to left, Alexander scored.1–4
- 6Vargas singled to right, Carroll scored and Moreno scored, Vargas thrown out at second, Alexander to third.1–3
- 3Schmitt homered to center (418 feet).1–1
- 1Perdomo scored, Marte to second on pickoff error by pitcher Teng.0–1
- 1Perdomo scored, Marte to second on pickoff error by pitcher Teng.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML SF +110 / ARI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +11 | SF: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +57 Elo | ARI 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3037–37 | Road vs home | 38–3419th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 16th of 301503 | Elo rating | 151611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–84 | 79–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–59 | 32–47 |
| Underdog | 38–25 | 47–24 |
| Overs–unders | 73–76 | 77–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 17–19 ARI in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 36.