San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tristan BeckPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Adrian Del CastilloBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lawlar reached on infield single to first, Carroll scored, Alexander to second, Moreno to third.5–6
- 5Carroll singled to left, Perdomo scored, Marte to second.5–5
- 5Marte singled to right, Vargas scored, Perdomo to third.5–4
- 3Flores homered to left center (413 feet).5–3
- 2Del Castillo homered to right (380 feet), Alexander scored.4–3
- 2Alexander singled to right, Moreno scored.4–1
- 1Encarnación doubled to right, Schmitt scored and Flores scored.4–0
- 1Flores singled to right, Devers scored.2–0
- 1Chapman hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramos scored, Devers to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML SF +105 / ARI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | SF: Tristan Beck: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +38 Elo | ARI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3037–38 | Road vs home | 39–3418th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Elo rating | 151911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–85 | 80–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–59 | 33–47 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 47–24 |
| Overs–unders | 73–77 | 77–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 17–20 ARI in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 37.