San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Devers walked, Lee scored, Ramos to second, Bailey to third.1–2
- 6Freeman singled to center, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.0–2
- 6Betts grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rortvedt scored on error by catcher Bailey.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML SF +145 / LAD -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -156
- SF +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.3 – 4.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −3 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +62 Elo | LAD 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 10th of 3038–39 | Road vs home | 49–285th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–85 | 64–88 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–59 | 50–79 |
| Underdog | 40–26 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 74–78 | 77–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 13–22 LAD in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 35.