Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Rafael MarchanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Enrique HernandezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marchán homered to right (362 feet), Wilson scored and Stott scored.9–6
- 8Call hit sacrifice fly to left, T. Hernández scored.6–6
- 8Ohtani homered to right (430 feet).6–5
- 6Kepler homered to right (410 feet).6–4
- 6Marsh homered to right center (394 feet), Schwarber scored and Harper scored.5–4
- 6Harper doubled to right, Marchán scored and Bader scored, Schwarber to third.2–4
- 4E. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to left, Edman scored.0–4
- 2E. Hernández homered to left center (415 feet), Pages scored.0–3
- 2Call homered to left center (408 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 54%
- ML PHI +110 / LAD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 49.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.6 – 3.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −6 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +1 Elo | PHI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3039–37 | Road vs home | 48–274th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301554 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–72 | 63–87 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 58–62 | 49–78 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 71–80 | 76–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–6 LAD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.