Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Weston WilsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to right, Bader scored, Harper to third.6–5
- 9Pages homered to left (424 feet).5–5
- 8Harper homered to center (396 feet).5–4
- 7Betts homered to left center (390 feet).4–4
- 7Wilson homered to center (417 feet), Stott scored.4–3
- 7Stott singled to center, Kemp scored.2–3
- 5Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, Robinson scored, Ohtani to third.1–3
- 5Muncy homered to right (405 feet).1–2
- 3Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, Pages scored.1–1
- 1Schwarber homered to right center (390 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML PHI +100 / LAD -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 49.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −2 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Anthony Banda: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +2 Elo | PHI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3038–37 | Road vs home | 48–263rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301553 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–72 | 63–86 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 58–62 | 49–77 |
| Underdog | 20–10 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 70–80 | 75–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–6 LAD in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.