Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Harrison BaderBatting1-4
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Edman hit sacrifice fly to right, T. Hernández scored.0–5
- 8Ohtani homered to center (408 feet).0–4
- 4E. Hernández singled to center, Pages scored.0–3
- 2Rortvedt singled to center, Rojas scored, Pages to third.0–2
- 2Freeman homered to center (419 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML PHI +125 / LAD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- PHI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.4 – 4.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +17 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +24 Elo | LAD 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3040–37 | Road vs home | 48–285th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301556 | Elo rating | 15473rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–72 | 63–88 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 58–62 | 49–79 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 72–80 | 77–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 11–6 LAD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.