San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Christian KossBatting2-4
- Trevor McDonaldPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Michael ConfortoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chapman grounded out to shortstop, Bailey scored, Adames to second, Devers to third.3–1
- 8Adames walked, Gilbert scored, Devers to second, Bailey to third.2–1
- 8Bailey hit a ground rule double, Koss scored, Gilbert to third.1–1
- 7Conforto singled to left, Muncy scored, Pages to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML SF +180 / LAD -215
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -191
- SF +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.0 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | SF: Trevor McDonald (no track record yet) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +71 Elo | LAD 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 13th of 3038–42 | Road vs home | 52–284th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15533rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–87 | 66–89 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–59 | 52–80 |
| Underdog | 41–28 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 76–79 | 79–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 13–25 LAD in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 38.